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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 38 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model