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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 8

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 8, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP