Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to CAR 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 12-D.Moore to CAR 23 for 15 yards (49-J.Olawale; 35-K.Frazier). PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.68 EP
62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model