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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 2-B.Maher 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model