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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CAR 4, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 18 for 14 yards (48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP