4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 25

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(14:37) 12-T.Brady up the middle to HOU 23 for 2 yards (92-B.Dunn).

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model