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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 63

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to NE 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-R.McCarron.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.02 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP