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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 20

New England Patriots 21 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model