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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 49

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 8-T.Daniel punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-R.McCarron.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.39 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model