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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 80

New England Patriots 27 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to HOU 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 34 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.26 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP