Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 64

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to NE 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-R.McCarron MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-23-J.Bademosi at NE 16. 23-J.Bademosi to NE 16 for no gain (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model