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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 55

New England Patriots 27 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:51) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to HOU 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -0.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model