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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 43

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 8-T.Daniel punts 37 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-R.McCarron.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.34 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model