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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 24

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model