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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 6-M.Nugent 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-L.Smith, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model