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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:15) 6-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-L.Smith, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.61 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model