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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model