Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 87

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-J.Townsend punts 35 yards to LV 48, Center-86-L.Smith. 10-P.Cooper to LA 49 for -3 yards (17-D.Harris; 41-K.Smith). LA-10-P.Cooper was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.54 EP
54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 87, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model