Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 5-J.Townsend punts 43 yards to LA 22, Center-86-L.Smith, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.82 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model