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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP