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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to LV 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-D.Harris to LV 15 for 10 yards (24-B.Countess, 44-J.McQuaide).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP