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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 12 for 4 yards (37-D.Rice).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.39 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model