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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model