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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 86

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to PIT 41, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to CLE 39 for 20 yards (26-D.Kindred).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model