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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model