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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to PIT 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model