Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cleveland Browns 14

(2:20) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to CLE 30, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 45 for 15 yards (37-J.Dangerfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.16 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model