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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CLE 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-20-C.Sutton.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.56 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model