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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PIT 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to 50 for 22 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.89 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model