Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to CLE 44 for 34 yards (24-N.Chubb). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 22. Penalty on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model