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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model