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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 13

New Orleans Saints 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48

What Actually Happened

(9:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson to TB 7 for 6 yards (36-M.Stewart). Pass 6, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model