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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.24 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model