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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Miami Dolphins
4th & 1 at the 15
Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 3
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 32-K.Drake.
The Three Options
GO
+3.05 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK
+1.92 EP
- 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
