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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to MIA 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 17 for -1 yards (32-D.Fluellen).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model