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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(12:10) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP