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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model