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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 17 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -0.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model