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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 27 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP