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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.52 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model