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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 3

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis to MIA 2 for 1 yard (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -1.23 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model