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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 8 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 6-J.Hekker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-18-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP