Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 19

(6:02) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LA 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 44 for 17 yards (51-G.Hodges).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.77 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model