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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 16-J.Goff up the middle to ARI 15 for no gain (90-R.Nkemdiche; 43-H.Reddick). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 13:10.)

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.06 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model