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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass short right to 29-C.Edmonds to ARI 46 for 7 yards (54-B.Hager).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -2.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model