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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP