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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-83-J.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model