4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.42 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model