Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 3 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to CLE 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 17 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model