Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 12 – New Orleans Saints 10

(7:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to NO 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model